The war is costing the Israeli economy $600M a week due to work absences, according to the Bank of Israel. This is equivalent to about 6% of the weekly GDP.[23] The bank also stated that the estimate does not reflect total damage and did not include damages caused by the absence of Palestinian and foreign workers.[24] On the other hand, Israel's treasury minister said the daily direct cost of the Gaza war to her country is about 246 million.[25]
It has been estimated that if the war went on for eight to twelve months, the cost of the war to the Israeli economy would be more than $50bn, or close to 10% of GDP, according to Calcalist, citing early Ministry of Finance figures. The estimates assume the conflict is limited to Gaza, without further escalation with other parties, and relies on the 350,000 drafted reservists returning to work soon.[26]
In November, the Bank of Israel projected that the war would incur a total expense of approximately USD53 billion until 2025.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
Can Israel pay for this war? Sure if the House passes aid to Israel and passes more aid to Israel which given it is an election year both sides should do this easily.
I only say should because if Mike loses the Speaker job that aid will be delayed until the House votes for a new Speaker that could take weeks. If someone more MAGA is elected as Speaker well I predict chaos I won’t even try to predict what might happen.
However it is interesting that the bank of Israel is predicting the war will last until 2025. $53 billion
GDP |
- $564.15 billion (nominal, 2023)[3]
- $530.04 billion (PPP, 2023)[3]
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Israel
If we use the high number $564.15 billion that's a little less than 1/6 of Israel’s GDP from last year. I doubt this year’s Israeli GDP will be that high.
There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. #.
https://suntzusaid.com/book/2
I suspect Bibi given how he has provoked Iran and the talk of Israeli retaliation for the drone strike Israel might provoke Iran again. This might prolong the war past 2025 and increase the cost of the war.
If Trump is elected Israel’s cost of the war will decrease but America will pay for that increased in cost more than we would under Joe.
Given that all NATO can’t resupply Ukraine with artillery and more Patriot Missiles for political reasons and lack of supply a longer war in Israel and Ukraine plus Taiwan needs weapons could or maybe already has led to a weapons shortage in several areas.
How soon can we ramp up production? Can we do it in time?
Regardless Israel though maybe not Ukraine should win but if Israel provokes Iran further.
One of the potential consequences could be a drastic increase in the prices of items such as oil, with projections suggesting that it can reach as high as $150 per barrel. This would have severe implications for the global economy, leading to higher food prices and potentially causing millions of people to go hungry. The mentioned report drew parallels to the 1973 war, during which Arab members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, imposed an oil embargo on the USA in response to their support for Israel.[57].
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
I would expect a recession
With low weapons stocks and a recession will our enemies take advantage? China could take Taiwan, North Korea might take South Korea, Iran could either block oil from the Persian Gulf. They may or may not be successful but they could try this would be their best opportunity in decades to try they might not get another chance at all if we can end the Israel and Ukraine wars quickly.
Further the Suez Canal might be blocked completely if we are forced to remove ships to deal with Iran. With the Panama Canal due to climate change reducing the number of ships going through it we are looking at a global shipping and oil recession.
Joe needs to act now Bibi is waiting for Trump to get elected as is Vlad. Sure that is very unlikely but Joe needs Bibi to end this now and get tons more arms to Ukraine than what is being talked about now.
Again no country benefits from a long war not Israel, not Russia not the US however our enemies benefit if they avoid war then they pick up the scraps.
In a global recession even if we avoid war now very few countries will be able to afford not to buy Iran’s oil or China’s high tech goods.
Further Suez and Panama Canal related shipping disruptions will only increase the price of all goods. An increase in the price of oil would make Iran and Russia stronger, plus it could get Trump elected President again.